TBL beat SJS 4–1. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 1.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Anthony Cirelli scored at 1:49 of the second, moving TBL’s win probability from 53% to 72%. Yaroslav Askarov allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:37 | SJS | Tyler Toffoli from William Eklund, Alexander Wennberg | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 15:10 |  TBL | Brandon Hagel from Anthony Cirelli, Nikita Kucherov | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 1:49 | TBL | Anthony Cirelli from Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 3:17 | TBL | Jake Guentzel from Dominic James, Gage Goncalves | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P3 17:41 | TBL | Brandon HagelEN from Jake Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov | 1–4 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:54 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.03 | +0.73 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 12:32 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| William Eklund L | 20:14 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 22:37 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 21:11 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 21:15 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 14:09 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Misa C | 12:36 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavol Regenda L | 11:56 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Dickinson D | 15:07 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 10:27 | −0.19 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 21:02 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 12:13 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 22:39 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Smith C | 17:21 | −0.24 | −0.14 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 15:56 | −0.27 | −0.13 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 12:19 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Macklin Celebrini C | 19:00 | −0.37 | −0.15 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 67:48 | −1.31 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel C | 15:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.15 | +0.73 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 13:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.09 | +0.80 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Brandon Hagel L | 18:50 | 2 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.07 | +0.60 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Declan Carlile D | 16:38 | +0.36 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Crozier D | 19:06 | +0.17 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 16:31 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 22:44 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 23:59 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 18:00 | 3 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 19:06 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 16:45 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 14:38 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 15:34 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jack Finley C | 10:21 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Dominic James C | 14:15 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.15 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 15:51 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 13:24 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 16:08 | −0.20 | +0.11 | −0.30 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | +0.37 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.