TBL beat COL 4–2. TBL lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brandon Hagel scored at 8:31 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 82%. Andrei Vasilevskiy saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:48 |  TBL | Jake GuentzelPP from Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh | 0–1 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 3:22 |  COL | Parker Kelly from Zakhar Bardakov, Ilya Solovyov | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 9:31 | COL | Brock Nelson from Cale Makar | 2–1 | 46% → 68% |
| P2 17:22 | TBL | Zemgus Girgensons from Yanni Gourde, Pontus Holmberg | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 8:31 | TBL | Brandon Hagel from Max Crozier, Nikita Kucherov | 2–3 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 18:35 | TBL | Anthony CirelliEN from Brandon Hagel, Darren Raddysh | 2–4 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Kelly C | 11:20 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.05 | +0.30 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Cale Makar D | 26:04 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.16 | −0.06 | +0.16 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 19:30 | +0.15 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zakhar Bardakov C | 8:33 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.21 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:37 | +0.13 | +0.28 | −0.34 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.07 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 18:55 | +0.11 | +0.25 | −0.29 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Solovyov D | 15:02 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 22:14 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 | |
| Sam Malinski D | 18:51 | +0.04 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Makar L | 7:17 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 19:02 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 21:54 | −0.05 | +0.30 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 15:54 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 11:54 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 18:42 | −0.21 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gavin Brindley C | 14:49 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 12:34 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 18:19 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 67:03 | −0.82 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:40 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.04 | +0.41 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 18:38 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.07 | +0.30 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 17:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.04 | +0.37 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Max Crozier D | 15:33 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 16:20 | 2 | +0.18 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.27 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 16:15 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 14:27 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 16:50 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 20:18 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Declan Carlile D | 12:24 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 13:43 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.13 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 12:12 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 11:47 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic James C | 12:08 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 21:10 | −0.23 | +0.23 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 24:39 | 2 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 14:05 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 24:06 | −0.39 | −0.36 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | +1.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.