TBL beat LAK 5–3. Expected goals were close to even (TBL 2.7, LAK 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Gage Goncalves scored at 18:19 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 50% to 94%. Darcy Kuemper allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:34 | TBL | Brayden PointPP from Jake Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 4:43 | LAK | Jeff Malott from Corey Perry | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 6:14 | LAK | Andrei KuzmenkoPP from Corey Perry, Kevin Fiala | 1–2 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 18:07 | TBL | Brayden Point from Darren Raddysh, J.J. Moser | 2–2 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 1:37 | LAK | Kevin FialaPP from Corey Perry, Andrei Kuzmenko | 2–3 | 53% → 78% |
| P3 16:41 | TBL | Anthony Cirelli from Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov | 3–3 | 9% → 49% |
| P3 18:19 | TBL | Gage Goncalves from Jake Guentzel, Anthony Cirelli | 4–3 | 50% → 94% |
| P3 19:15 | TBL | Nikita KucherovEN from Darren Raddysh | 5–3 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point C | 18:56 | 2 | +1.07 | +0.04 | +1.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Gage Goncalves C | 16:50 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.17 | +0.66 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 17:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.24 | +0.39 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Dominic James C | 9:23 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 20:13 | +0.16 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 20:51 | 1 | 2 | +0.14 | +0.19 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| J.J. Moser D | 24:49 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 21:39 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 11:55 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 24:55 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 17:44 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.12 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:24 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 15:18 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Declan Carlile D | 11:24 | −0.14 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 18:32 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 9:58 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 10:21 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Crozier D | 14:25 | −0.24 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson G | 60:00 | −0.79 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Malott L | 7:47 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.07 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 16:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.04 | +0.73 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kevin Fiala L | 19:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.13 | +0.55 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Quinton Byfield R | 19:01 | +0.20 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 16:50 | +0.04 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Helenius C | 7:22 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 21:35 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 15:11 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 15:45 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Turcotte C | 15:49 | −0.13 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Alex Laferriere R | 17:25 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 22:15 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 11:29 | 3 | −0.24 | +0.09 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 16:53 | −0.24 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandt Clarke D | 20:20 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 19:19 | −0.31 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 18:37 | −0.36 | −0.21 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 15:45 | −0.40 | −0.06 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 59:46 | −1.06 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.