SJS beat ANA 5–4. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 4.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Macklin Celebrini scored at 19:12 of the first, moving SJS’s win probability from 47% to 65%. Lukas Dostal allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:43 |  SJS | Mario Ferraro from Alexander Wennberg, Adam Gaudette | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 15:02 | ANA | Troy Terry from Nikita Nesterenko | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 19:12 | SJS | Macklin Celebrini from Alexander Wennberg, Tyler Toffoli | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 6:30 | SJS | Igor Chernyshov from Macklin Celebrini, Sam Dickinson | 3–1 | 67% → 83% |
| P2 12:17 | SJS | William Eklund from Macklin Celebrini | 4–1 | 85% → 96% |
| P2 16:26 | ANA | Cutter Gauthier from Troy Terry, Ryan Poehling | 4–2 | 3% → 13% |
| P3 3:07 | ANA | Pavel Mintyukov from Cutter Gauthier, Ian Moore | 4–3 | 9% → 26% |
| P3 13:47 | SJS | Zack Ostapchuk from Vincent Iorio, Barclay Goodrow | 5–3 | 85% → 98% |
| P3 15:58 | ANA | Troy TerryPP from Mason McTavish, Jackson LaCombe | 5–4 | 1% → 12% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Wennberg C | 19:38 | 2 | +0.79 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.37 | −0.00 | +0.39 | −0.02 | |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 16:14 | 1 | 2 | +0.73 | −0.07 | +0.37 | +0.43 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Vincent Iorio D | 19:07 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Eklund L | 18:44 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.10 | +0.41 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 8:27 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.02 | +0.32 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 23:34 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.01 | +0.41 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Igor Chernyshov L | 15:53 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.14 | +0.30 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 15:10 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sam Dickinson D | 15:41 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Gaudette R | 10:45 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Collin Graf R | 21:15 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 12:22 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 8:55 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 11:49 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 21:32 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 17:10 | −0.29 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 19:16 | −0.37 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 18:28 | −0.40 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 60:00 | +0.92 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Terry R | 18:51 | 2 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.11 | +1.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 19:28 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.46 | +0.31 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 17:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.11 | +0.02 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Ian Moore D | 17:52 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.29 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 13:42 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 12:39 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.21 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 20:21 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 9:09 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 24:42 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 9:22 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beckett Sennecke R | 17:01 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 14:55 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 11:21 | −0.09 | +0.11 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 24:37 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 20:04 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 11:10 | −0.19 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 19:25 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.40 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 18:04 | −0.25 | +0.21 | −0.28 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 23:56 | −0.36 |
| Lukas Dostal G | 32:17 | −2.92 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.