TOR beat OTT 7–5. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Bobby McMann scored at 3:28 of the second, moving TOR’s win probability from 53% to 72%. Joseph Woll allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:40 | TOR | William NylanderPP from Auston Matthews, Matias Maccelli | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 14:42 | TOR | Matthew KniesPP from Max Domi, Nicholas Robertson | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P1 17:50 |  OTT | Nick Cousins from Jordan Spence, Stephen Halliday | 1–2 | 15% → 29% |
| P2 0:18 | OTT | Ridly Greig from Claude Giroux | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 3:28 | TOR | Bobby McMann from Auston Matthews, Max Domi | 2–3 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 7:28 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Max Domi, Jake McCabe | 2–4 | 73% → 88% |
| P2 8:32 | TOR | Nicholas Robertson from Matthew Knies, Nicolas Roy | 2–5 | 88% → 96% |
| P3 0:14 | OTT | Drake Batherson from Dylan Cozens, Brady Tkachuk | 3–5 | 2% → 8% |
| P3 5:07 | OTT | Tim Stützle from Fabian Zetterlund | 4–5 | 6% → 20% |
| P3 5:53 | TOR | Matthew Knies from Matias Maccelli, Morgan Rielly | 4–6 | 80% → 94% |
| P3 9:18 | OTT | Jordan Spence from Claude Giroux, Stephen Halliday | 5–6 | 4% → 18% |
| P3 18:44 | TOR | John TavaresEN unassisted | 5–7 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Spence D | 20:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.11 | +0.37 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Drake Batherson R | 18:37 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.11 | +0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 22:12 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.11 | +0.27 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 8:31 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.03 | +0.34 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 18:20 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| David Perron L | 13:17 | +0.20 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Stephen Halliday C | 8:43 | 2 | +0.18 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 18:09 | 2 | +0.18 | −0.10 | −0.15 | +0.43 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 23:42 | +0.16 | +0.14 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 14:34 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.12 | +0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 17:00 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.27 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 14:31 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 14:30 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 15:26 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Xavier Bourgault R | 6:43 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 20:01 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 17:03 | −0.12 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 23:20 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Leevi Meriläinen G | 30:55 | −0.12 |
| Linus Ullmark G | 27:28 | −2.10 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Knies L | 16:38 | 2 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.11 | +0.64 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| William Nylander R | 8:25 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.07 | +0.40 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 17:21 | 3 | +0.40 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 19:08 | 1 | 2 | +0.32 | +0.08 | −0.31 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Bobby McMann C | 17:25 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.09 | +0.34 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Laughton C | 16:44 | +0.14 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 9:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.08 | +0.14 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Matias Maccelli L | 15:54 | 2 | +0.11 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 19:47 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 15:40 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 22:27 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 16:45 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 22:14 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dakota Joshua C | 13:09 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 21:27 | −0.10 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 12:54 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| John Tavares C | 16:38 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Philippe Myers D | 13:32 | −0.32 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 60:00 | −2.43 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.