TBL beat CAR 6–4. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jake Guentzel scored at 6:38 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 80%. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:42 | CAR | Eric Robinson from Jordan Staal | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 4:00 | CAR | Jackson BlakePP from Nikolaj Ehlers, Shayne Gostisbehere | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P1 12:27 | CAR | Bradly NadeauPP from Logan Stankoven | 3–0 | 78% → 91% |
| P2 0:30 |  TBL | Gage Goncalves from Dominic James, Max Crozier | 3–1 | 7% → 20% |
| P2 1:20 | TBL | Brayden Point from Charle-Edouard D'Astous, Nikita Kucherov | 3–2 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 16:36 | TBL | Jack Finley from Dominic James, Yanni Gourde | 3–3 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 2:47 | CAR | Andrei Svechnikov from Mark Jankowski, Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 4–3 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 3:13 | TBL | Ryan McDonagh from Pontus Holmberg, Charle-Edouard D'Astous | 4–4 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 6:38 | TBL | Jake Guentzel from J.J. Moser, Nick Paul | 4–5 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 19:33 | TBL | Jake GuentzelEN from Ryan McDonagh | 4–6 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Robinson L | 13:50 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.10 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Bradly Nadeau L | 13:06 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.02 | +0.58 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jackson Blake R | 19:25 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.38 | +0.78 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Nikishin D | 19:45 | +0.19 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 10:55 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 18:12 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.24 | +0.66 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| William Carrier L | 9:50 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 10:06 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 15:08 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Sean Walker D | 18:05 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 16:22 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 13:45 | −0.27 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 21:28 | −0.31 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 19:36 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.25 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 18:11 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.29 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 19:59 | −0.39 | −0.34 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:19 | −0.51 | −0.28 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 15:52 | −0.52 | −0.27 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 59:06 | −1.39 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan McDonagh D | 19:34 | 1 | 1 | +1.10 | +0.34 | +0.73 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Gage Goncalves C | 10:18 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.02 | +0.70 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 18:25 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.15 | +0.46 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jack Finley C | 8:19 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.04 | +0.54 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 19:19 | 2 | +0.38 | +0.07 | +0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 13:01 | +0.24 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 22:30 | +0.22 | +0.23 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 16:42 | 2 | +0.22 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 22:55 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.37 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:44 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 16:13 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.26 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dominic James C | 10:44 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 12:50 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.15 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Declan Carlile D | 15:22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Crozier D | 16:42 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 12:26 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 19:25 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.15 | −0.26 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Raddysh D | 23:06 | −0.30 | +0.25 | −0.36 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | −1.67 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.