TBL beat NJD 8–4. Expected goals were close to even (TBL 3.0, NJD 3.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Nick Paul scored at 2:57 of the first, moving TBL’s win probability from 47% to 62%. Jake Allen allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:57 |  TBL | Nick Paul from Scott Sabourin | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:48 | TBL | Darren Raddysh from Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P1 7:00 |  NJD | Luke Hughes from Brenden Dillon, Paul Cotter | 2–1 | 24% → 37% |
| P1 7:56 | TBL | Pontus Holmberg from J.J. Moser, Yanni Gourde | 3–1 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 15:00 | TBL | Jake GuentzelPP from Oliver Bjorkstrand, Darren Raddysh | 4–1 | 79% → 91% |
| P2 6:19 | TBL | Oliver Bjorkstrand from Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point | 5–1 | 94% → 99% |
| P2 13:12 | NJD | Jesper BrattPP from Simon Nemec, Stefan Noesen | 5–2 | 1% → 4% |
| P2 16:35 | TBL | Brandon HagelPP from Nikita Kucherov, Declan Carlile | 6–2 | 97% → 99% |
| P3 3:13 | NJD | Angus CrookshankPP from Colton White, Simon Nemec | 6–3 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 7:55 | TBL | Brayden Point from Nikita Kucherov, J.J. Moser | 7–3 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 15:28 | NJD | Paul Cotter from Cody Glass, Luke Hughes | 7–4 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 15:57 | TBL | Oliver BjorkstrandPP from Jake Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov | 8–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 13:47 | 2 | 1 | +1.38 | +0.05 | +1.32 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 16:19 | 1 | +1.04 | −0.06 | +0.89 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Raddysh D | 23:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.03 | +0.88 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Paul L | 12:38 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.02 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brayden Point C | 15:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.02 | +0.64 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jake Guentzel C | 15:22 | 1 | 2 | +0.48 | −0.03 | +0.52 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Brandon Hagel L | 16:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.13 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 14:17 | +0.17 | +0.06 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Max Crozier D | 17:12 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 18:44 | +0.04 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Declan Carlile D | 16:04 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Lilleberg D | 19:23 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 20:59 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 16:12 | 4 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.31 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Curtis Douglas C | 9:48 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 20:49 | 2 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Sabourin R | 9:08 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 19:31 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson G | 59:22 | +0.06 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Hughes D | 23:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.05 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Angus Crookshank C | 10:24 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.03 | +0.61 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 14:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.01 | +0.48 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Jesper Bratt L | 16:46 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.07 | +0.23 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 19:20 | +0.21 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 19:37 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Arseny Gritsyuk R | 19:44 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton White D | 14:46 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 10:16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 17:23 | −0.03 | +0.08 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Xavier Parent C | 9:42 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 19:53 | −0.12 | +0.09 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 16:45 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 20:52 | 2 | −0.38 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 14:43 | −0.40 | −0.05 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 15:46 | 1 | −0.46 | +0.03 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 17:21 | −0.46 | +0.02 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 15:59 | 1 | −0.61 | +0.08 | −0.65 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 52:02 | −1.88 |
| Jacob Markstrom G | 7:56 | −2.39 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.