TOR beat TBL 2–0. Expected goals were close to even (TBL 2.1, TOR 2.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Morgan Rielly scored at 16:26 of the first, moving TOR’s win probability from 53% to 71%. Dennis Hildeby saved 3.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:26 |  TOR | Morgan Rielly from Easton Cowan, John Tavares | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P3 19:59 | TOR | Auston MatthewsEN unassisted | 0–2 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 9:30 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 12:52 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Crozier D | 14:02 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 13:46 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 14:38 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 21:12 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 17:43 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 23:42 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 19:02 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 20:18 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 21:13 | −0.20 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:03 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Finley C | 6:39 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 5:25 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 24:38 | −0.31 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 20:51 | −0.35 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 18:48 | −0.51 | −0.10 | −0.35 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 20:53 | −0.63 | −0.10 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson G | 57:45 | +1.10 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares C | 17:43 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 21:20 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.01 | +0.32 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dakota Mermis D | 10:34 | +0.19 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 23:08 | +0.17 | +0.22 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 25:15 | +0.15 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Easton Cowan R | 16:52 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Scott Laughton C | 14:21 | +0.06 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 13:13 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 15:15 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 8:11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 11:11 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 20:17 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 13:00 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 19:31 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 17:24 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 21:39 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 9:17 | −0.26 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 20:07 | 1 | −0.44 | +0.01 | −0.45 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dennis Hildeby G | 59:42 | +3.20 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.