MIN beat EDM 1–0. MIN lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jonas Brodin scored at 13:11 of the first, moving MIN’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Jesper Wallstedt saved 3.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:11 | MIN | Jonas Brodin from Nico Sturm | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Brodin D | 25:46 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.01 | +0.45 | −0.13 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 16:21 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 15:09 | +0.15 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam Ohgren L | 5:17 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Jones C | 6:39 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 11:34 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 6:21 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 25:39 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zeev Buium D | 16:29 | −0.07 | +0.17 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 13:46 | −0.11 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 16:59 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 19:13 | −0.13 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 18:40 | −0.14 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 21:14 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 19:59 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 18:29 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 18:45 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.38 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 18:58 | −0.79 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.39 | −0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 60:00 | +3.78 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 23:24 | +0.37 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.39 | +0.01 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 21:49 | +0.07 | +0.23 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clattenburg C | 4:41 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 14:26 | −0.05 | +0.22 | −0.19 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 14:43 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 8:45 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 8:30 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alec Regula D | 16:10 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 17:45 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 22:58 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 14:29 | −0.10 | +0.13 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 25:46 | −0.15 | +0.14 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 20:49 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.34 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 13:06 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 19:12 | −0.24 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 16:35 | −0.25 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 17:52 | −0.37 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 16:39 | −0.48 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 58:21 | +1.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.