VGK beat SJS 4–3. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Colton Sissons scored at 5:36 of the second, moving VGK’s win probability from 53% to 73%. Alex Nedeljkovic allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:34 | SJS | Will Smith from Tyler Toffoli, Dmitry Orlov | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 16:13 |  VGK | Tomas Hertl from Pavel Dorofeyev, Ben Hutton | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 5:36 | VGK | Colton Sissons from Keegan Kolesar, Cole Reinhardt | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 7:02 | VGK | Mitch Marner from Brett Howden, Mark Stone | 1–3 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 12:38 | VGK | Tomas HertlPP from Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel | 1–4 | 90% → 97% |
| P2 14:40 | SJS | Will SmithPP from Macklin Celebrini | 2–4 | 3% → 10% |
| P2 19:35 | SJS | William Eklund from Adam Gaudette, Mario Ferraro | 3–4 | 8% → 23% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Smith C | 19:53 | 2 | +0.50 | −0.10 | +0.67 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| William Eklund L | 19:55 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.04 | +0.38 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 20:10 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.20 | +0.26 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Adam Gaudette R | 14:43 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:53 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Klingberg D | 23:15 | +0.06 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 22:20 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.13 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 18:47 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 8:07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 7:22 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 14:13 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 15:33 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 21:58 | −0.19 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 14:36 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 17:04 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 8:14 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 15:56 | −0.31 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 20:47 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 58:16 | −1.33 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl C | 17:22 | 2 | +0.78 | +0.09 | +0.64 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.10 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 16:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.15 | +0.42 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Colton Sissons C | 12:25 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.08 | +0.40 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 22:20 | +0.40 | +0.21 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 13:29 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 12:54 | +0.28 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.11 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 11:43 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.08 | −0.05 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 17:29 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 14:39 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.13 | −0.14 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mark Stone R | 19:55 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Holtz R | 12:22 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Reinhardt L | 11:33 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.15 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 19:58 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 22:44 | −0.10 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:49 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braeden Bowman R | 15:16 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 20:22 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 17:00 | −0.23 | +0.05 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carl Lindbom G | 60:00 | +0.34 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.