BUF beat MIN 3–2 in a shootout. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Josh Doan scored at 6:01 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 20% to 48%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:37 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Mats Zuccarello, Danila Yurov | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 12:42 | BUF | Beck Malenstyn from Peyton Krebs, Josh Dunne | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 14:05 | MIN | Matt Boldy unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P3 6:01 | BUF | Josh Doan from Alex Tuch, Noah Ostlund | 2–2 | 20% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Ostlund C | 12:20 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +1.01 | |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 12:31 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.13 | +0.38 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jack Quinn R | 20:17 | +0.58 | +0.04 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.79 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 18:55 | +0.24 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.66 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 12:22 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.13 | −0.14 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Josh Doan R | 12:33 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.16 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Owen Power D | 19:44 | +0.14 | +0.34 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Dunne C | 10:20 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Zach Benson L | 17:32 | +0.08 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 24:55 | +0.05 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 10:12 | +0.03 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 23:09 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 21:18 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Kozak C | 12:28 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 24:23 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 17:34 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 29:37 | −0.29 | +0.12 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 17:37 | 1 | −0.57 | +0.13 | −0.18 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Colten Ellis G | 65:00 | +0.13 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 27:10 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.38 | +0.24 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.68 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 23:20 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.16 | +0.14 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.60 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 22:20 | +0.24 | +0.23 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.00 | ||
| Danila Yurov R | 14:25 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | −0.00 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 23:52 | +0.04 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.07 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 19:54 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 18:22 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 5:48 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 13:47 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 13:43 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 26:10 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.15 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam Ohgren L | 11:42 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 18:49 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 8:39 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 22:20 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 17:39 | −0.32 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | ||
| Zeev Buium D | 18:02 | −0.53 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 12:40 | −0.77 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 84:47 | −0.72 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.