EDM beat SEA 4–0. EDM lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored on the power play at 11:29 of the first, moving EDM’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Stuart Skinner saved 2.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:29 |  EDM | Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPP from Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 12:30 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Andrew Mangiapane, Ty Emberson | 2–0 | 69% → 85% |
| P2 18:51 | EDM | Zach HymanPP from Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 3–0 | 89% → 97% |
| P3 6:25 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Zach Hyman, Mattias Ekholm | 4–0 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Hyman L | 15:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.05 | +0.36 | +0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 17:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.01 | +0.42 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Connor McDavid C | 17:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.05 | +0.46 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 21:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.08 | +0.31 | +0.24 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Evan Bouchard D | 23:38 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.26 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 15:38 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Savoie C | 13:29 | +0.17 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 22:00 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Emberson D | 17:59 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 19:29 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Regula D | 16:25 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 10:45 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 16:27 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 10:04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 13:15 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 14:44 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clattenburg C | 9:08 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 19:25 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 69:30 | +2.75 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryker Evans D | 18:39 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 12:51 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 15:59 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.23 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 15:05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Winterton C | 12:33 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 11:02 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 14:43 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 17:23 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 17:54 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 16:35 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 14:48 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 18:40 | −0.23 | +0.10 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Berkly Catton C | 17:03 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 22:52 | −0.25 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 19:17 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.24 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 15:48 | −0.27 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 21:36 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 16:24 | −0.36 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 60:00 | −2.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.