TBL beat CGY 5–1. TBL lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 4.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brandon Hagel scored at 0:39 of the first, moving TBL’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Andrei Vasilevskiy saved 4.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:39 | TBL | Brandon Hagel from Anthony Cirelli, Nikita Kucherov | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 1:26 | TBL | Charle-Edouard D'Astous from Nick Paul, Jake Guentzel | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 5:52 | TBL | Zemgus Girgensons from Yanni Gourde, Pontus Holmberg | 0–3 | 82% → 89% |
| P1 10:01 | TBL | Declan Carlile from Steven Santini, Jake Guentzel | 0–4 | 91% → 99% |
| P3 1:04 |  CGY | Joel FarabeeSH from John Beecher, Yan Kuznetsov | 1–4 | 0% → 1% |
| P3 14:23 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Brandon Hagel, Darren Raddysh | 1–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Farabee L | 13:21 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 18:17 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yan Kuznetsov D | 20:54 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 14:31 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 13:41 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 11:43 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Beecher C | 9:13 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Lomberg L | 12:28 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 18:19 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 23:39 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 14:39 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 21:37 | −0.30 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 13:52 | −0.34 | +0.04 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 14:37 | −0.45 | +0.03 | −0.47 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 19:15 | −0.45 | +0.02 | −0.34 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 16:42 | −0.50 | +0.05 | −0.54 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:51 | −0.82 | +0.04 | −0.81 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 17:37 | −1.00 | +0.00 | −0.97 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devin Cooley G | 54:08 | +0.15 |
| Dustin Wolf G | 5:52 | −2.75 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 21:58 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.08 | +0.88 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Declan Carlile D | 17:48 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.09 | +0.87 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 17:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.48 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Brandon Hagel L | 20:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.06 | +0.60 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:59 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.04 | +0.71 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 17:27 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 10:39 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Gage Goncalves C | 13:37 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic James C | 10:48 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Curtis Douglas C | 10:12 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 21:21 | 2 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 15:03 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Santini D | 17:42 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 20:44 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 22:18 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 19:46 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.03 | −0.33 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 14:47 | −0.36 | −0.05 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 18:27 | −0.44 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | +4.07 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.