TBL beat EDM 2–1 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (EDM 2.9, TBL 3.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jake Guentzel scored at 1:43 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Calvin Pickard saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:32 |  EDM | Trent Frederic from Leon Draisaitl | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P3 17:28 |  TBL | Nick Paul from J.J. Moser, Emil Lilleberg | 1–1 | 8% → 51% |
| OT 1:43 | TBL | Jake Guentzel from Darren Raddysh, Nikita Kucherov | 1–2 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Frederic C | 13:57 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.02 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Emberson D | 14:46 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 12:37 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 18:06 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| David Tomasek R | 10:06 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 10:14 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 23:14 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Jake Walman D | 10:03 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 17:25 | −0.14 | +0.13 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 16:24 | −0.16 | +0.20 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 16:32 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 28:07 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 24:17 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Regula D | 8:35 | −0.29 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 20:35 | −0.29 | +0.26 | −0.72 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 15:38 | −0.33 | −0.13 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 17:38 | −0.35 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 24:06 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.29 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard G | 61:43 | +2.15 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Paul L | 15:21 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.03 | +0.78 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Dominic James C | 12:54 | +0.25 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Douglas C | 5:18 | +0.21 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 21:51 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.35 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 20:39 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.13 | +0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 22:08 | +0.07 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Santini D | 10:17 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 11:58 | +0.02 | +0.14 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 14:42 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Declan Carlile D | 13:45 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:46 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 21:32 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 13:48 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 27:38 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.11 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 20:04 | −0.33 | +0.13 | −0.47 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 20:24 | −0.43 | +0.16 | −0.62 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 17:24 | −0.45 | +0.14 | −0.61 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 23:37 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.04 | −0.51 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 61:43 | +1.74 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.