TBL beat FLA 3–1. TBL lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jack Finley scored at 4:09 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 48% to 75%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:19 | TBL | Emil Lilleberg from Nikita Kucherov | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 11:31 |  FLA | Brad MarchandPP from Sam Reinhart, Anton Lundell | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 4:09 | TBL | Jack Finley from Curtis Douglas, Scott Sabourin | 2–1 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 19:09 | TBL | Zemgus GirgensonsEN from Yanni Gourde | 3–1 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emil Lilleberg D | 16:02 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.11 | +0.86 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Finley C | 8:25 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.07 | +0.43 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Max Crozier D | 17:50 | +0.16 | +0.18 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Douglas C | 7:07 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 22:24 | +0.07 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 20:20 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Sabourin R | 9:06 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.15 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jakob Pelletier L | 6:12 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 19:49 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 15:18 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 18:05 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boris Katchouk L | 10:35 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 12:56 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 25:05 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 18:13 | −0.25 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 20:21 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 22:31 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.55 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 19:36 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | +0.84 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Marchand L | 17:52 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.11 | +0.58 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| A.J. Greer L | 8:04 | +0.29 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 16:11 | +0.23 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 23:05 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 23:28 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.15 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 10:36 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 25:30 | +0.00 | +0.21 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 18:50 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Schwindt C | 7:26 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 14:14 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Donovan Sebrango D | 10:37 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 17:35 | −0.08 | +0.15 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 21:30 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 20:46 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 7:33 | −0.28 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 15:26 | −0.29 | −0.05 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 14:46 | −0.37 | −0.10 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 18:46 | −0.42 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 57:45 | +0.16 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.