SJS beat FLA 3–1. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Macklin Celebrini scored at 17:25 of the first, moving SJS’s win probability from 52% to 71%. Yaroslav Askarov saved 3.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:25 | SJS | Macklin Celebrini from Will Smith, Vincent Desharnais | 0–1 | 52% → 71% |
| P2 3:06 | SJS | Adam Gaudette from Dmitry Orlov, Timothy Liljegren | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 3:34 |  FLA | Brad Marchand from Anton Lundell, Eetu Luostarinen | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P3 19:09 | SJS | Alexander WennbergEN from Collin Graf, Will Smith | 1–3 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 14:41 | +0.52 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.58 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 21:28 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Brad Marchand L | 20:49 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.20 | +0.30 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jones D | 26:44 | +0.07 | +0.27 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 19:35 | +0.01 | +0.14 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 20:36 | +0.00 | +0.21 | −0.07 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Donovan Sebrango D | 12:53 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 18:52 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.21 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 12:05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 10:29 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cole Schwindt C | 11:28 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 11:45 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 18:07 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 19:29 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 18:31 | −0.19 | +0.09 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 11:37 | −0.30 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 15:00 | −0.32 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 21:07 | −0.34 | +0.26 | −0.51 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 67:12 | −0.28 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Gaudette R | 10:41 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.07 | +0.39 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Vincent Desharnais D | 20:31 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 19:18 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 21:47 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Smith C | 18:37 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.16 | −0.13 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 16:59 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.14 | +0.25 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Sam Dickinson D | 12:41 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 15:51 | −0.03 | +0.13 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethan Cardwell R | 12:14 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 12:47 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 22:44 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 18:04 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Klingberg D | 20:22 | −0.29 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 13:46 | −0.32 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 12:02 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 18:09 | −0.39 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 8:17 | −0.41 | −0.08 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:49 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 60:00 | +3.60 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.