CAR beat BUF 6–3. Expected goals were close to even (BUF 2.6, CAR 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Andrei Svechnikov scored on the power play at 4:34 of the second, moving CAR’s win probability from 54% to 72%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:00 |  CAR | Sebastian Aho from Andrei Svechnikov | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 8:18 |  BUF | Owen Power from Noah Ostlund | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 4:34 | CAR | Andrei SvechnikovPP from K'Andre Miller, Nikolaj Ehlers | 1–2 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 11:39 | CAR | Jesperi Kotkaniemi from Joel Nystrom, Taylor Hall | 1–3 | 74% → 89% |
| P3 0:29 | CAR | Eric Robinson from Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Charles Alexis Legault | 1–4 | 92% → 98% |
| P3 3:23 | BUF | Alex Tuch from Tage Thompson | 2–4 | 1% → 7% |
| P3 6:49 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Ryan McLeod, Alex Tuch | 3–4 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 17:56 | CAR | Seth JarvisEN from Jordan Staal | 3–5 | 93% → 100% |
| P3 18:32 | CAR | Charles Alexis LegaultEN from Sebastian Aho | 3–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Tuch R | 18:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.02 | +0.47 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tage Thompson C | 18:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.05 | +0.14 | +0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Owen Power D | 22:08 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.04 | +0.36 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Doan R | 15:15 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 19:23 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.04 | −0.12 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Noah Ostlund C | 9:33 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Michael Kesselring D | 17:29 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 23:35 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.13 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 11:17 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Dunne C | 9:38 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isak Rosen R | 13:54 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 17:17 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 13:22 | −0.11 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 16:23 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Tyson Kozak C | 14:11 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 20:22 | −0.18 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 15:04 | −0.22 | +0.06 | −0.24 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 21:30 | −0.29 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 71:19 | −0.79 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 11:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.00 | +0.41 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 18:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.00 | +0.36 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.03 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Eric Robinson L | 12:22 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.05 | +0.24 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 15:57 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Nystrom D | 16:23 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.05 | −0.06 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charles Alexis Legault D | 18:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| K'Andre Miller D | 20:31 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.25 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 11:36 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 17:49 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| William Carrier L | 13:20 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 21:39 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 15:30 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 14:16 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 21:09 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 14:30 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 16:27 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 21:05 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 78:32 | −0.53 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.