TBL beat VGK 6–3. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 3.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brandon Hagel scored at 4:12 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 48% to 75%. Carl Lindbom allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:25 | VGK | Ivan Barbashev from Noah Hanifin, Mitch Marner | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 15:53 | VGK | Ivan Barbashev from Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 0:36 | TBL | Gage Goncalves from Dominic James | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 3:28 | TBL | Dominic James from Oliver Bjorkstrand, J.J. Moser | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 2:47 | TBL | Nikita KucherovPP from Oliver Bjorkstrand, Jake Guentzel | 3–2 | 49% → 74% |
| P3 3:37 | VGK | Mitch Marner from Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev | 3–3 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 4:12 | TBL | Brandon Hagel from Dominic James | 4–3 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 14:13 | TBL | Nikita KucherovPP from Victor Hedman, Brandon Hagel | 5–3 | 86% → 98% |
| P3 19:13 | TBL | Brandon HagelEN from Nikita Kucherov | 6–3 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov R | 20:20 | 2 | 1 | +1.42 | +0.12 | +1.25 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dominic James C | 15:13 | 1 | 2 | +1.25 | +0.31 | +0.75 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Gage Goncalves C | 13:50 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.28 | +0.59 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 19:15 | 2 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.05 | +0.35 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 20:31 | +0.15 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 20:32 | +0.11 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 13:48 | +0.10 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 10:59 | +0.10 | +0.26 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 17:41 | +0.09 | +0.20 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 8:54 | +0.06 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 14:41 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 13:16 | +0.03 | +0.15 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 15:54 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 20:34 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 19:23 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 21:44 | 1 | −0.35 | +0.11 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 17:06 | 2 | −0.38 | +0.29 | −0.67 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 18:20 | −0.38 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | +0.55 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:28 | 2 | 1 | +1.10 | −0.15 | +1.45 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Mitch Marner R | 21:35 | 1 | 2 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.60 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack Eichel C | 21:54 | 2 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.32 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Brett Howden C | 15:10 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 17:56 | −0.07 | +0.10 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 15:14 | −0.10 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 14:58 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 23:53 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Reinhardt L | 7:43 | −0.20 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 19:16 | −0.24 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 18:41 | −0.25 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 12:30 | −0.30 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 19:21 | −0.30 | +0.11 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 7:49 | −0.38 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 23:53 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.08 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 9:46 | −0.49 | −0.28 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 15:58 | −0.50 | −0.20 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 16:04 | −0.59 | −0.03 | −0.68 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.11 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carl Lindbom G | 67:56 | −1.54 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.