COL beat TBL 3–2. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Victor Olofsson scored at 4:08 of the second, moving COL’s win probability from 53% to 72%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:37 |  TBL | Nikita Kucherov unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 13:51 |  COL | Victor OlofssonPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 4:08 | COL | Victor Olofsson from Jack Drury, Gabriel Landeskog | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 5:21 | COL | Ross Colton from Sam Malinski, Brock Nelson | 1–3 | 73% → 87% |
| P3 3:32 | TBL | Brayden Point from Charle-Edouard D'Astous, Victor Hedman | 2–3 | 7% → 21% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov R | 19:36 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.21 | +0.81 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 18:55 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.24 | +0.57 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 18:57 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic James C | 13:38 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 13:32 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 16:09 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 19:00 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Crozier D | 10:11 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 13:13 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 8:31 | −0.14 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 22:21 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 20:30 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 17:54 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 17:18 | −0.19 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 18:22 | −0.29 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 14:08 | −0.36 | −0.13 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 19:04 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.20 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 15:31 | −0.48 | −0.12 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 57:00 | +0.93 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Olofsson R | 14:07 | 2 | +1.50 | +0.24 | +1.46 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Colton C | 12:11 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.15 | +0.66 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brent Burns D | 21:30 | +0.31 | +0.29 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 19:14 | +0.29 | +0.34 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 14:15 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cale Makar D | 27:45 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 12:33 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Parker Kelly C | 13:53 | +0.04 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 15:37 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.26 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Zakhar Bardakov C | 5:33 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Tristen Nielsen C | 5:25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Ahcan D | 7:30 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 23:58 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 17:30 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.13 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 20:17 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 19:41 | −0.27 | +0.25 | −0.49 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 21:02 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.04 | −0.47 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:00 | 1 | −1.00 | −0.04 | −1.00 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 60:00 | −0.36 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.