TBL beat NSH 5–2. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Zemgus Girgensons scored at 10:31 of the first, moving TBL’s win probability from 47% to 64%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:31 | TBL | Zemgus Girgensons from Pontus Holmberg, Yanni Gourde | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 15:37 | TBL | Brandon Hagel from Anthony Cirelli | 2–0 | 70% → 87% |
| P3 5:05 | NSH | Luke EvangelistaPP from Erik Haula, Brady Skjei | 2–1 | 8% → 24% |
| P3 7:58 | TBL | Charle-Edouard D'Astous from Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov | 3–1 | 78% → 94% |
| P3 17:54 | NSH | Filip ForsbergPP from Luke Evangelista, Erik Haula | 3–2 | 1% → 7% |
| P3 19:07 | TBL | Nikita KucherovEN from Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli | 4–2 | 94% → 100% |
| P3 19:33 | TBL | Zemgus Girgensons from Pontus Holmberg, Erik Cernak | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:14 | 2 | +1.42 | +0.04 | +1.40 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 17:11 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.23 | +0.71 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 23:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.29 | +0.32 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 19:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 21:30 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.24 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Emil Lilleberg D | 16:06 | +0.10 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 21:14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 14:32 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 21:51 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 11:04 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 18:15 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Douglas C | 7:31 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 13:26 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 17:13 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 18:26 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 11:38 | 2 | −0.27 | +0.11 | −0.51 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Brayden Point C | 17:30 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dominic James C | 12:32 | −0.48 | +0.18 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 69:44 | +0.06 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Forsberg L | 17:08 | 1 | +1.15 | −0.03 | +0.77 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Evangelista R | 13:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.02 | +0.64 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Cole Smith L | 14:03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 14:17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ozzy Wiesblatt C | 9:28 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 15:30 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:19 | −0.09 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 26:55 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 20:12 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 12:13 | −0.18 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 18:14 | −0.26 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Wilsby D | 5:36 | −0.27 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 24:57 | −0.28 | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Wood R | 13:53 | −0.34 | −0.04 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 16:29 | −0.39 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 16:23 | −0.42 | −0.07 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 14:04 | 2 | −0.46 | −0.09 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.07 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 16:22 | −0.59 | −0.11 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 79:12 | −0.42 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.