TBL beat VGK 2–1 in overtime. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 1.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nikita Kucherov scored at 0:32 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Carl Lindbom saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:53 | TBL | Brandon Hagel from Victor Hedman, Jake Guentzel | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 18:25 | VGK | William Karlsson from Reilly Smith, Shea Theodore | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| OT 0:32 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Brandon Hagel | 1–2 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Karlsson C | 18:04 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.14 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 14:19 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 15:00 | +0.09 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 24:34 | +0.07 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 10:38 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 12:58 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 10:41 | +0.04 | +0.15 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 17:49 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 16:55 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 20:21 | −0.14 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 15:22 | −0.21 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 27:45 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 11:33 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 16:56 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 7:15 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:05 | −0.30 | +0.07 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 21:41 | −0.32 | −0.23 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 15:58 | −0.39 | −0.13 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carl Lindbom G | 60:32 | +1.12 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov R | 22:07 | 1 | +1.20 | +0.26 | +0.66 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 19:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.31 | +0.33 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Erik Cernak D | 17:41 | +0.11 | +0.17 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 18:55 | +0.03 | +0.17 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 12:41 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 11:35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic James C | 12:34 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 10:29 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 18:37 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 22:15 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 10:49 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 17:12 | −0.11 | +0.08 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 21:31 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.15 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gage Goncalves C | 12:40 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 15:49 | −0.33 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 15:38 | −0.34 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 15:18 | −0.50 | +0.05 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 23:08 | 1 | −0.62 | +0.02 | −0.64 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:32 | +0.61 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.