MTL beat CHI 3–2. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kaiden Guhle scored at 19:45 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 49% to 96%. Spencer Knight allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:45 | MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Zachary Bolduc, Nick Suzuki | 1–0 | 48% → 66% |
| P2 4:34 | CHI | Sam Rinzel from Teuvo Teravainen, Frank Nazar | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 5:45 | MTL | Zachary BolducPP from Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki | 2–1 | 48% → 67% |
| P2 9:15 | CHI | Connor BedardPP from Frank Nazar, Teuvo Teravainen | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 19:45 | MTL | Kaiden Guhle from Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson | 3–2 | 49% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Bolduc R | 16:42 | 1 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.24 | +0.25 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 |
| Cole Caufield R | 19:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.34 | +0.22 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Lane Hutson D | 21:26 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.22 | −0.09 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 21:56 | 3 | +0.34 | +0.29 | −0.15 | +0.32 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.07 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 16:32 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.00 | +0.33 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 20:37 | +0.25 | +0.36 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 14:37 | +0.24 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 13:43 | +0.16 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 14:33 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 14:12 | −0.01 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 23:08 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 13:15 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 13:52 | −0.09 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kapanen C | 10:40 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 23:34 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 6:48 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 14:22 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 13:33 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 59:46 | +0.45 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Nazar C | 18:28 | 2 | +0.43 | −0.08 | −0.13 | +0.27 | −0.00 | +0.39 | −0.02 | |
| Sam Rinzel D | 25:58 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.12 | +0.42 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 20:34 | 2 | +0.17 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.28 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Bedard C | 18:23 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.38 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 15:31 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 14:33 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 18:48 | −0.12 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Reichel L | 6:41 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 13:46 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 16:56 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Colton Dach C | 16:02 | −0.18 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ryan Greene C | 9:54 | −0.25 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 14:57 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 20:21 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 24:15 | −0.28 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Louis Crevier D | 9:35 | −0.34 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 4:43 | −0.46 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.39 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 13:19 | −0.48 | +0.06 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 60:00 | −1.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.