OTT beat TBL 5–4. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Shane Pinto scored at 18:13 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 50% to 93%. Linus Ullmark allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:35 |  TBL | Oliver BjorkstrandPP from Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 7:00 | TBL | Brayden Point from Jake Guentzel, Darren Raddysh | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 10:18 | OTT | Dylan CozensPP from Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson | 1–2 | 17% → 30% |
| P1 14:46 | TBL | Nikita KucherovPP from Victor Hedman, Brayden Point | 1–3 | 71% → 84% |
| P2 0:42 | OTT | Artem Zub from Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle | 2–3 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 15:09 | OTT | Shane Pinto from Artem Zub, Brady Tkachuk | 3–3 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 18:13 | OTT | Shane Pinto from Jake Sanderson | 4–3 | 50% → 93% |
| P3 19:12 | OTT | Claude GirouxEN from Shane Pinto, Artem Zub | 5–3 | 95% → 100% |
| P3 19:46 | TBL | Nikita KucherovPP from Darren Raddysh, Victor Hedman | 5–4 | 0% → 4% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Pinto C | 19:21 | 2 | 1 | +1.72 | +0.25 | +1.47 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Artem Zub D | 20:44 | 1 | 2 | +0.86 | +0.30 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Cozens C | 15:35 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.05 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 16:34 | +0.34 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 15:11 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.36 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 23:10 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.23 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 19:35 | +0.12 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 22:00 | +0.08 | +0.23 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 13:35 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 2:13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 18:54 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 10:46 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 14:20 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Donovan Sebrango D | 14:18 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 19:24 | 3 | −0.19 | +0.20 | −0.58 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| David Perron L | 12:37 | −0.35 | +0.07 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 18:09 | −0.36 | +0.18 | −0.53 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 19:03 | 1 | −0.50 | +0.04 | −0.50 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 59:53 | −1.71 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov R | 20:55 | 2 | +1.18 | −0.29 | +1.46 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 19:40 | 1 | 2 | +0.59 | −0.24 | +0.84 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 14:39 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.04 | +0.56 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gage Goncalves C | 11:56 | +0.16 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 17:08 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 18:25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Douglas C | 5:09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Geekie C | 10:39 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 18:45 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 19:02 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 14:56 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Max Crozier D | 17:52 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 11:52 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 13:24 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 23:49 | 2 | −0.33 | −0.23 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Raddysh D | 17:33 | 2 | −0.43 | −0.36 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 15:40 | −0.47 | −0.04 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 22:32 | 2 | −0.63 | −0.28 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 58:56 | −0.69 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.