TBL beat FLA 5–1. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brayden Point scored at 1:32 of the first, moving TBL’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Andrei Vasilevskiy saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:32 | TBL | Brayden Point from Yanni Gourde, J.J. Moser | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 15:25 | TBL | Conor Geekie from Brayden Point, Victor Hedman | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P1 18:09 | TBL | Jake GuentzelSH from Anthony Cirelli | 0–3 | 85% → 93% |
| P2 4:42 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Yanni Gourde, Brayden Point | 0–4 | 95% → 99% |
| P2 5:36 | FLA | Brad Marchand from Carter Verhaeghe, Matt Kiersted | 1–4 | 1% → 5% |
| P3 11:22 | TBL | Darren RaddyshPP from Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman | 1–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Marchand L | 21:09 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.01 | +0.60 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaycob Megna D | 14:07 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 15:26 | +0.13 | +0.03 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 18:22 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 7:04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 19:00 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 19:10 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 16:02 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 13:45 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 10:58 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 16:57 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Kiersted D | 10:00 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Uvis Balinskis D | 19:46 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 19:53 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 17:14 | −0.31 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 16:06 | −0.38 | −0.03 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 17:29 | −0.44 | −0.02 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 15:06 | −0.47 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.40 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 60:00 | −1.06 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel C | 18:21 | 1 | +0.95 | −0.01 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.04 | |
| Brayden Point C | 15:03 | 1 | 2 | +0.82 | −0.02 | +0.82 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 15:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.02 | +0.56 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Darren Raddysh D | 17:52 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.10 | +0.82 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Geekie C | 14:48 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.01 | +0.88 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 19:29 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 8:56 | +0.06 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 15:45 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 12:37 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 14:52 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 18:15 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.10 | −0.26 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 18:37 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 16:18 | −0.15 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 15:36 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 13:38 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 19:12 | 2 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Gage Goncalves C | 19:09 | −0.69 | −0.02 | −0.50 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 16:24 | −1.23 | −0.05 | −0.79 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 59:56 | +1.10 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.