DET beat TBL 4–3 in overtime. DET also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Marco Kasper scored at 3:22 of overtime, moving DET’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:01 | TBL | Anthony Cirelli from Brandon Hagel, Darren Raddysh | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 4:07 |  DET | Patrick Kane unassisted | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 16:37 | DET | Tyler Motte from Justin Holl, William Lagesson | 2–1 | 47% → 71% |
| P2 17:52 | TBL | Gage Goncalves unassisted | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 1:38 | TBL | Gage Goncalves from Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli | 2–3 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 12:59 | DET | Marco Kasper from Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane | 3–3 | 14% → 49% |
| OT 3:22 | DET | Marco Kasper unassisted | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Kasper C | 20:36 | 2 | +1.59 | +0.34 | +1.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 19:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.20 | +0.68 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Motte C | 10:39 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.05 | +0.64 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Simon Edvinsson D | 24:35 | +0.24 | +0.30 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 25:21 | +0.20 | +0.34 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 18:12 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.09 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 15:16 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 20:21 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.26 | −0.26 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Austin Watson L | 9:52 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 14:34 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 15:15 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonatan Berggren R | 18:47 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 10:02 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Lagesson D | 15:51 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 22:20 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 13:55 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 17:33 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 19:52 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 63:22 | −1.23 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gage Goncalves C | 17:54 | 2 | +1.67 | +0.07 | +1.59 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 16:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.11 | +0.70 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.08 |
| Darren Raddysh D | 12:39 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 18:17 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 18:20 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 17:59 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 18:48 | 2 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 9:44 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 16:57 | −0.14 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 10:24 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 17:47 | −0.16 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 19:41 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 22:14 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 22:29 | −0.28 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 18:37 | −0.31 | +0.11 | −0.25 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 17:08 | −0.32 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 19:10 | −0.32 | −0.20 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 14:45 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 63:22 | −1.64 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.