TOR beat TBL 4–3 in overtime. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 4.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Matthew Knies scored at 2:56 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:13 | TOR | Mitch Marner from Auston Matthews | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:33 | TOR | Matthew Knies from Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P1 18:58 |  TBL | Nick Perbix from Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel | 2–1 | 20% → 35% |
| P3 0:50 | TBL | Oliver BjorkstrandPP from Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman | 2–2 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 2:03 | TOR | Matthew KniesPP from John Tavares, Mitch Marner | 3–2 | 49% → 75% |
| P3 11:05 | TBL | Victor HedmanPP from Oliver Bjorkstrand, Brandon Hagel | 3–3 | 20% → 52% |
| OT 2:56 | TOR | Matthew Knies from Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Knies L | 17:42 | 3 | +2.19 | +0.36 | +1.84 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 23:22 | 1 | 2 | +0.93 | +0.16 | +0.68 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Auston Matthews C | 23:16 | 3 | +0.10 | +0.39 | −0.32 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 13:22 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 12:04 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Philippe Myers D | 7:19 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 12:17 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 22:19 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 23:12 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 25:14 | −0.22 | +0.05 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 21:20 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Laughton C | 14:18 | −0.32 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.04 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 20:56 | −0.32 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 15:35 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 10:18 | −0.35 | −0.08 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 12:43 | −0.37 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.02 | ||
| John Tavares C | 16:22 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.10 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.12 | |
| Bobby McMann C | 11:27 | −0.61 | −0.16 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 62:56 | +0.32 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 19:45 | 1 | 1 | +1.12 | +0.31 | +0.81 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Perbix D | 15:10 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.08 | +0.89 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 26:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.06 | +0.41 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Darren Raddysh D | 13:28 | +0.37 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 25:42 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.10 | −0.08 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Lilleberg D | 14:19 | +0.11 | +0.18 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 19:28 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 2:37 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 22:53 | −0.13 | +0.21 | −0.57 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 23:37 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.19 | −0.55 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Paul L | 17:35 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 21:13 | 2 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 10:36 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 14:43 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 12:49 | −0.23 | +0.10 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 15:33 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.32 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 14:07 | −0.30 | −0.24 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 19:53 | −0.63 | −0.22 | −0.41 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 62:56 | −0.37 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.