BUF beat TBL 3–2 in a shootout. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jason Zucker scored on the power play at 5:07 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 25% to 52%. James Reimer saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:35 | TBL | Brayden Point from Nikita Kucherov | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 4:47 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Zach Benson | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 13:01 | TBL | Gage Goncalves from Oliver Bjorkstrand, Yanni Gourde | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 5:07 | BUF | Jason ZuckerPP from Alex Tuch, Rasmus Dahlin | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gage Goncalves C | 11:42 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.07 | +0.45 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 22:24 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.04 | +0.67 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.39 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 9:15 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 17:22 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Darren Raddysh D | 11:41 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 6:36 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 9:52 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 10:20 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 19:23 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 13:50 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 21:00 | −0.24 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 24:50 | −0.32 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 17:29 | −0.33 | −0.08 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 23:25 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.25 | −0.29 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 19:27 | −0.67 | −0.66 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 21:53 | −0.98 | −0.60 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 24:31 | −1.07 | −0.26 | −0.45 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.32 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 25:28 | −1.15 | −0.49 | −0.48 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson G | 64:59 | +1.31 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Zucker L | 15:47 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.11 | +0.71 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 22:50 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.52 | +0.58 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.32 | |
| Jack Quinn R | 13:22 | +0.42 | −0.02 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.78 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:16 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.48 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 19:54 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.33 | −0.44 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.33 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 20:18 | +0.21 | +0.14 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 22:27 | +0.16 | +0.22 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 18:17 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 9:01 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 20:14 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 14:10 | −0.01 | +0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 16:06 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.30 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jiri Kulich C | 18:04 | −0.09 | +0.14 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 11:01 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 15:49 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Noah Ostlund C | 8:37 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 20:12 | −0.37 | +0.08 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 19:35 | −0.47 | +0.48 | −1.14 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 65:00 | +1.59 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.