UTA beat CHI 5–2. UTA also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Alexander Kerfoot scored at 17:08 of the second, moving UTA’s win probability from 47% to 71%. Arvid Soderblom allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 8:21 |  UTA | Nick DeSimone from Alexander Kerfoot, Kevin Stenlund | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 11:02 | CHI | Joe Veleno from Artyom Levshunov, Nick Foligno | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 14:55 | CHI | Ryan Donato from Connor Bedard | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 16:37 | UTA | Mikhail Sergachev from John Marino, Lawson Crouse | 2–2 | 24% → 47% |
| P2 17:08 | UTA | Alexander Kerfoot from Mikhail Sergachev, John Marino | 3–2 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 10:57 | UTA | Kailer Yamamoto from Alexander Kerfoot | 4–2 | 81% → 96% |
| P3 12:54 | UTA | Logan Cooley from Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther | 5–2 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 14:53 | 1 | 2 | +0.85 | +0.13 | +0.26 | +0.41 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 23:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.14 | +0.44 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick DeSimone D | 17:02 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.26 | +0.42 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 20:42 | 2 | +0.32 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 16:26 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.06 | +0.34 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jack McBain C | 13:32 | +0.20 | +0.12 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 19:20 | +0.15 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 17:19 | +0.15 | +0.25 | +0.00 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 12:58 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.20 | +0.24 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Doan R | 12:12 | +0.07 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 14:05 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.09 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 14:13 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 19:59 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 16:12 | −0.05 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 15:13 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.19 | −0.33 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 15:19 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 11:23 | −0.10 | +0.15 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 17:21 | −0.24 | +0.21 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | +0.56 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Veleno C | 13:03 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.07 | +0.36 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 17:24 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.32 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Connor Bedard C | 20:59 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.22 | +0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 15:29 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 17:33 | −0.04 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 12:40 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Kevin Korchinski D | 18:34 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Moore C | 15:03 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 18:06 | −0.08 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Artyom Levshunov D | 20:52 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.25 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 18:50 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 17:13 | −0.24 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Rinzel D | 20:15 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Reichel L | 12:09 | −0.28 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Nazar C | 17:18 | −0.33 | −0.24 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.02 | ||
| Landon Slaggert L | 11:35 | −0.36 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 17:38 | −0.39 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 13:46 | −0.47 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arvid Soderblom G | 59:33 | −1.66 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.