COL beat DAL 4–3 in overtime. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Cale Makar scored at 0:34 of overtime, moving COL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jake Oettinger allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:10 |  DAL | Jason Robertson from Roope Hintz, Mikko Rantanen | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:09 | COL | Martin NecasPP from Cale Makar, Jonathan Drouin | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 6:24 | COL | Valeri Nichushkin from Devon Toews, Cale Makar | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 17:19 | COL | Jonathan Drouin from Sam Malinski, Valeri Nichushkin | 1–3 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 14:12 | DAL | Mavrik Bourque from Jamie Benn, Wyatt Johnston | 2–3 | 2% → 13% |
| P3 14:32 | DAL | Matt Duchene from Esa Lindell, Mason Marchment | 3–3 | 12% → 49% |
| OT 0:34 | COL | Cale Makar from Nathan MacKinnon, Brock Nelson | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Duchene C | 15:45 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.13 | +0.25 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jason Robertson L | 19:07 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.01 | +0.31 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mavrik Bourque C | 11:46 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.07 | +0.29 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 22:46 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.15 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roope Hintz C | 17:34 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 16:18 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 13:08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lian Bichsel D | 14:35 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 9:57 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 21:46 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 11:18 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Oskar Bäck C | 9:39 | −0.18 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 14:33 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Harley D | 25:39 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 11:05 | −0.22 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 19:54 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.27 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 17:15 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.13 | −0.20 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 21:00 | −0.32 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 60:34 | −2.29 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale Makar D | 23:51 | 1 | 2 | +1.07 | +0.31 | +0.37 | +0.17 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 17:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.21 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 14:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.07 | +0.32 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:20 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.17 | −0.15 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 14:46 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 23:51 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Malinski D | 14:18 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.23 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 19:01 | +0.04 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 13:45 | +0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 13:39 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 12:49 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 11:56 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 11:51 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 20:48 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ross Colton C | 13:28 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 19:28 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 20:33 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.08 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 11:01 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.24 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 60:34 | −0.63 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.