PHI beat TBL 4–3 in a shootout. PHI also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Cam Atkinson scored at 3:50 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 21% to 48%. Jonas Johansson allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:29 | TBL | Gage GoncalvesPP from Yanni Gourde, Ryan McDonagh | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:20 |  PHI | Bobby Brink from Olle Lycksell, Ryan Poehling | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 0:15 | TBL | Zemgus Girgensons from Erik Cernak, Brandon Hagel | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 10:55 | PHI | Bobby Brink from Sean Couturier | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 19:01 | PHI | Ryan Poehling from Olle Lycksell, Bobby Brink | 2–3 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 3:50 | TBL | Cam Atkinson from Victor Hedman, J.J. Moser | 3–3 | 21% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point C | 21:49 | +0.80 | +0.15 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.78 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 12:54 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.09 | +0.38 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Cam Atkinson R | 7:06 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.04 | +0.40 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 16:57 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 16:18 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.15 | +0.38 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 20:38 | +0.08 | +0.19 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 14:18 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 16:38 | +0.02 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 19:40 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 21:09 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.12 | −0.06 | +0.07 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 20:44 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 7:56 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 28:04 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.21 | −0.04 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 24:51 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.27 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 10:50 | −0.31 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 15:51 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 21:57 | −0.39 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 13:20 | −0.66 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson G | 65:00 | −1.14 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Tippett R | 19:38 | +0.79 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +1.01 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 19:49 | +0.76 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.78 | ||
| Olle Lycksell R | 11:11 | 2 | +0.50 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 14:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.06 | +0.28 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.00 |
| Bobby Brink R | 16:13 | 2 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.26 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Egor Zamula D | 17:03 | +0.12 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Pelletier L | 5:56 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 23:39 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Andrae D | 16:08 | +0.06 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rodrigo Abols C | 6:25 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 5:25 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 17:06 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 20:42 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 22:12 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.12 | −0.32 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.05 | −0.49 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 29:06 | −0.26 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 21:15 | −0.37 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 19:52 | −0.67 | −0.62 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 23:28 | −0.72 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 65:00 | +0.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.