BOS beat TBL 4–0. Expected goals were close to even (BOS 2.0, TBL 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Cole Koepke scored at 10:32 of the second, moving BOS’s win probability from 47% to 69%. Jeremy Swayman saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 10:32 | BOS | Cole Koepke unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 13:16 | BOS | Mark Kastelic from Patrick Brown, Ian Mitchell | 2–0 | 84% → 98% |
| P3 14:52 | BOS | Nikita ZadorovEN from John Beecher | 3–0 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 15:53 | BOS | Cole Koepke from David Pastrnak, Casey Mittelstadt | 4–0 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Koepke L | 14:22 | 2 | +1.56 | +0.05 | +1.51 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Kastelic C | 11:17 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.07 | +0.93 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 18:38 | +0.40 | +0.21 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 20:31 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.24 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Beecher C | 12:07 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 19:03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinni Lettieri C | 14:06 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 18:29 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 13:15 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jakub Lauko C | 12:24 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Mitchell D | 14:46 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 21:48 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Brown C | 12:39 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 15:43 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mason Lohrei D | 23:54 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 17:55 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 16:13 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.33 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 18:50 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 60:00 | +2.21 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 8:41 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 20:54 | +0.12 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 18:12 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 16:09 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 18:11 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 20:04 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 21:26 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 15:40 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 11:13 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 20:45 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 11:34 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 15:16 | −0.09 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 8:44 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 18:08 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 18:14 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 18:10 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 17:16 | −0.36 | +0.04 | −0.41 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 20:00 | −0.89 | +0.05 | −0.74 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 59:23 | −1.10 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.