TBL beat SEA 4–1. TBL lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brandon Hagel scored short-handed at 9:27 of the second, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 73%. Andrei Vasilevskiy saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 9:27 |  TBL | Brandon HagelSH from Ryan McDonagh, Emil Lilleberg | 0–1 | 52% → 73% |
| P3 11:15 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Brayden Point | 0–2 | 84% → 97% |
| P3 12:58 | TBL | Luke Glendening from Cam Atkinson, Michael Eyssimont | 0–3 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 15:24 | SEA | Shane Wright from Brandon Montour, Joshua Mahura | 1–3 | 0% → 1% |
| P3 18:14 | TBL | Nick PaulEN from Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli | 1–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Wright C | 14:03 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.06 | +0.80 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 23:25 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 11:46 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 20:52 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 14:30 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitchell Stephens C | 5:46 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joshua Mahura D | 13:35 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 14:33 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 24:27 | −0.15 | +0.13 | −0.31 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 19:40 | −0.18 | +0.15 | −0.34 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 20:36 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 19:53 | −0.19 | +0.10 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 15:29 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 15:11 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 20:31 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 15:13 | −0.31 | −0.04 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 21:43 | −0.35 | +0.16 | −0.49 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 10:27 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ales Stezka G | 58:20 | −0.64 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov R | 18:13 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.04 | +0.65 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 17:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.02 | +0.65 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Luke Glendening C | 10:46 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.15 | +0.80 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 21:32 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Lilleberg D | 16:57 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 16:45 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Raddysh D | 17:27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 19:07 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 17:56 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 14:17 | −0.05 | +0.15 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 12:46 | −0.10 | +0.12 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 10:34 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 23:02 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 18:14 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.29 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 22:08 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 16:34 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:16 | −0.25 | +0.15 | −0.37 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 9:43 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | +1.89 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.