TBL beat DET 6–3. TBL lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Dylan Duke scored at 4:10 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 75% to 92%. Cam Talbot allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:28 |  TBL | Brandon Hagel from Nikita Kucherov, Erik Cernak | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 2:56 | TBL | Erik Cernak from Nikita Kucherov, Ryan McDonagh | 2–0 | 62% → 75% |
| P1 9:47 | DET | Vladimir Tarasenko from Moritz Seider, Alex DeBrincat | 2–1 | 23% → 36% |
| P1 11:49 | TBL | Brayden Point from Gage Goncalves, Brandon Hagel | 3–1 | 64% → 77% |
| P1 15:13 | TBL | Nick Paul from Brandon Hagel, Erik Cernak | 4–1 | 78% → 91% |
| P1 16:54 | DET | Patrick KanePP from Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond | 4–2 | 9% → 21% |
| P2 14:29 | DET | Alex DeBrincat unassisted | 4–3 | 14% → 30% |
| P3 4:10 | TBL | Dylan Duke from Mitchell Chaffee, Nick Perbix | 5–3 | 75% → 92% |
| P3 17:57 | TBL | Brandon HagelEN from Nikita Kucherov, Ryan McDonagh | 6–3 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Cernak D | 22:01 | 1 | 2 | +0.77 | −0.14 | +0.91 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Duke L | 7:38 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.03 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 17:11 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.02 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 19:21 | 2 | 2 | +0.65 | −0.04 | +0.71 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Brayden Point C | 17:12 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.07 | +0.49 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Gage Goncalves C | 12:37 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 19:47 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 23:37 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 18:10 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 10:02 | −0.13 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 7:47 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 20:18 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 12:10 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 22:54 | 2 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Raddysh D | 17:48 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 14:08 | −0.19 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:56 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 22:15 | 3 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.40 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | +1.40 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Kane R | 19:26 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.14 | +0.46 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 15:22 | 1 | 2 | +0.56 | +0.18 | +0.34 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 14:10 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.10 | +0.14 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 18:42 | +0.24 | +0.12 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 24:29 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.24 | −0.08 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonatan Berggren R | 12:53 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 13:20 | +0.03 | +0.11 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 20:08 | +0.03 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 22:11 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 11:16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 13:16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elmer Soderblom L | 14:37 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 17:02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 13:29 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 17:02 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 20:06 | −0.27 | +0.19 | −0.53 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 20:05 | 1 | −0.47 | +0.14 | −0.62 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 14:42 | −0.55 | +0.05 | −0.55 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 54:48 | −1.48 |
| Alex Lyon G | 2:56 | −1.76 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.