MTL beat SJS 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 2.9, SJS 3.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Joel Armia scored short-handed at 15:56 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 48% to 87%. Alexandar Georgiev allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:52 | SJS | Macklin CelebriniPP from Tyler Toffoli, William Eklund | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P2 0:52 |  MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 4:53 | MTL | Alex Newhook from Alexandre Carrier, Kirby Dach | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 14:51 | SJS | Collin Graf from Barclay Goodrow | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 2:40 | MTL | Brendan GallagherPP from Kirby Dach, Alex Newhook | 3–2 | 49% → 74% |
| P3 10:27 | SJS | Tyler ToffoliPP from Macklin Celebrini, Jake Walman | 3–3 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 15:56 | MTL | Joel ArmiaSH from Jake Evans | 4–3 | 48% → 87% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Armia R | 16:16 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.12 | +0.85 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 19:00 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 12:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.07 | +0.43 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Cole Caufield R | 18:12 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.12 | +0.37 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 12:37 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.26 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 19:42 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 12:29 | 2 | +0.21 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 19:46 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.16 | −0.15 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 27:02 | +0.11 | +0.24 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 16:42 | +0.11 | +0.19 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 20:00 | −0.10 | +0.16 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 14:58 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Owen Beck C | 9:37 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.16 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 13:45 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 12:37 | −0.21 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 17:50 | −0.24 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 16:28 | −0.26 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 14:42 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 59:36 | −0.16 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Toffoli C | 18:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.19 | +0.27 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.40 | +0.00 |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 21:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.06 | +0.20 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.02 |
| William Eklund L | 21:12 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.18 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Collin Graf R | 17:37 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.16 | +0.29 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 22:28 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Smith C | 18:15 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Thompson D | 19:21 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 25:34 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Walker Duehr R | 8:26 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 15:53 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Colin White C | 8:34 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 9:18 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 15:20 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 12:31 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 14:25 | −0.21 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 17:25 | −0.21 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henry Thrun D | 16:17 | −0.24 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Poturalski C | 13:36 | −0.41 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 57:27 | −1.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.