WPG beat UTA 5–2. WPG also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Cole Perfetti scored at 5:51 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 52% to 80%. Connor Ingram allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:52 |  WPG | Cole PerfettiPP from Nikolaj Ehlers, Gabriel Vilardi | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 1:13 | UTA | Nick SchmaltzPP from Michael Kesselring, Clayton Keller | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 8:48 | WPG | David Gustafsson from Dylan DeMelo | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 1:19 | UTA | Barrett Hayton from John Marino, Clayton Keller | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 5:51 | WPG | Cole Perfetti from Vladislav Namestnikov, Dylan DeMelo | 2–3 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 12:16 | WPG | Nikolaj Ehlers unassisted | 2–4 | 85% → 97% |
| P3 18:15 | WPG | Cole PerfettiEN from Nikolaj Ehlers, Neal Pionk | 2–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrett Hayton C | 14:13 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.10 | +0.36 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 21:54 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.02 | +0.38 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 15:40 | +0.17 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 22:56 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 20:51 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 22:35 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 22:57 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 22:27 | 2 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jack McBain C | 12:18 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 16:27 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 10:25 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 13:28 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 12:54 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick DeSimone D | 15:08 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 18:28 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 14:38 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 11:44 | −0.27 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 11:18 | −0.37 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 58:51 | −1.76 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 14:56 | 1 | 2 | +0.64 | +0.05 | +0.38 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Cole Perfetti C | 15:17 | 3 | +0.63 | −0.02 | +0.67 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| David Gustafsson C | 9:55 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.06 | +0.37 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 17:18 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.26 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 22:17 | 2 | +0.14 | +0.11 | −0.08 | +0.29 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 16:51 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 21:17 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 16:57 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 22:26 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 12:09 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 19:25 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 16:02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Rasmus Kupari C | 13:23 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 17:08 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 10:58 | −0.05 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 17:32 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 15:31 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 15:52 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:00 | −0.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.