MTL beat TBL 3–2. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 4.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jake Evans scored at 17:45 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 50% to 93%. Samuel Montembeault saved 2.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:20 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Anthony Cirelli, Emil Lilleberg | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 2:45 | TBL | Jake Guentzel from Michael Eyssimont | 2–0 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 5:32 |  MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýPP from Patrik Laine, Lane Hutson | 2–1 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 7:21 | MTL | Alex Newhook from Patrik Laine | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 17:45 | MTL | Jake Evans from Joel Armia, Alexandre Carrier | 2–3 | 50% → 93% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov R | 26:55 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.40 | +0.28 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 18:17 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.19 | +0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.04 | |
| Darren Raddysh D | 24:05 | +0.52 | +0.36 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 23:48 | +0.27 | +0.33 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 14:19 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.22 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:51 | +0.10 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 22:49 | +0.05 | +0.39 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 12:07 | +0.02 | +0.25 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Crozier D | 18:41 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 10:17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 17:31 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 18:46 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 7:09 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 21:29 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.42 | −0.52 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Eyssimont C | 11:21 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.18 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 7:44 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Geekie C | 11:09 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 19:55 | −0.68 | +0.30 | −1.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 58:09 | −0.84 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Newhook C | 14:23 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.08 | +0.82 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Evans C | 16:19 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.03 | +0.55 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 16:21 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.17 | +0.65 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Beck C | 6:57 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 13:20 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 20:02 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Savard D | 18:47 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 21:24 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 13:23 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 16:58 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 15:16 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 19:54 | −0.26 | −0.17 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 14:38 | 2 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 14:03 | −0.36 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 14:11 | −0.37 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 11:21 | −0.47 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 21:01 | 1 | −0.62 | −0.36 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 23:42 | −0.66 | −0.45 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 60:00 | +2.52 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.