CAR beat TOR 6–3. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jackson Blake scored at 4:58 of the second, moving CAR’s win probability from 53% to 73%. Joseph Woll allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:59 |  TOR | Nicholas Robertson from Max Domi, Steven Lorentz | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 7:29 | TOR | William Nylander unassisted | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 13:58 |  CAR | Eric Robinson from Ty Smith, Martin Necas | 2–1 | 22% → 36% |
| P1 14:15 | CAR | Jordan Staal from Andrei Svechnikov, Jordan Martinook | 2–2 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 0:35 | CAR | Jordan StaalSH from Jordan Martinook, Jaccob Slavin | 2–3 | 52% → 71% |
| P2 1:11 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from Matthew Knies, Mitch Marner | 3–3 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 4:58 | CAR | Jackson Blake from Juha Jaaska, Dmitry Orlov | 3–4 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 0:20 | CAR | Jordan Staal from Brent Burns, Jordan Martinook | 3–5 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 16:23 | CAR | Seth JarvisEN unassisted | 3–6 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Knies L | 15:05 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.40 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 12:34 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Nylander R | 18:20 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.11 | +0.23 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 13:16 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 12:04 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Philippe Myers D | 17:06 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 15:32 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.19 | +0.36 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 20:16 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 20:51 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 19:58 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 19:29 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 18:59 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 17:44 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 12:27 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 15:19 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 9:36 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 16:56 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 18:43 | −0.33 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 59:45 | −1.82 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Staal C | 13:01 | 3 | +1.58 | +0.11 | +1.50 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 15:13 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jackson Blake R | 13:44 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.17 | +0.36 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 12:22 | 3 | +0.24 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juha Jaaska L | 9:52 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.15 | −0.06 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 21:20 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Smith D | 12:18 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 12:59 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.12 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 21:12 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Necas C | 16:58 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Brent Burns D | 23:06 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.21 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Drury C | 12:22 | +0.00 | +0.15 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 19:35 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 15:14 | −0.05 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 15:24 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 20:33 | −0.18 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 21:20 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:58 | −0.42 | −0.07 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 59:37 | −0.00 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.