FLA beat TBL 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (FLA 2.1, TBL 1.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: A.J. Greer scored short-handed at 10:28 of the second, moving FLA’s win probability from 46% to 68%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:51 | FLA | Sam ReinhartPP from Aaron Ekblad, Matthew Tkachuk | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P1 19:55 |  TBL | Nick Paul from Victor Hedman, Darren Raddysh | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 10:28 | FLA | A.J. GreerSH from Tomas Nosek | 2–1 | 46% → 68% |
| P2 11:10 | FLA | Eetu LuostarinenSH unassisted | 3–1 | 68% → 84% |
| P3 3:26 | TBL | Brayden Point from Jake Guentzel, Darren Raddysh | 3–2 | 9% → 25% |
| P3 19:29 | FLA | Sam ReinhartEN from Anton Lundell, Aleksander Barkov | 4–2 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Greer L | 10:42 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.04 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 13:13 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.24 | +0.79 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 20:31 | 2 | +0.42 | +0.15 | +0.39 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 20:52 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.20 | −0.04 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 25:17 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.09 | −0.05 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 20:09 | +0.15 | +0.21 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 14:50 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.27 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 13:25 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 24:46 | +0.03 | +0.11 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 21:07 | +0.02 | +0.20 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 9:51 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Rasmus Asplund C | 7:56 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 13:40 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 16:13 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 12:42 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Uvis Balinskis D | 13:04 | −0.17 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 16:16 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.07 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 17:29 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 59:57 | +0.03 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Paul L | 14:22 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.05 | +0.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Darren Raddysh D | 20:53 | 2 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 24:02 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.26 | +0.31 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 24:14 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Eyssimont C | 10:07 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 17:24 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 9:04 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 16:09 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:12 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 9:52 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Conor Geekie C | 9:53 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 20:09 | −0.15 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 17:48 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 16:16 | −0.17 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 21:59 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.21 | −0.17 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 12:29 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 16:38 | −0.36 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 23:47 | −0.43 | −0.25 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 58:06 | −0.70 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.