CBJ beat TBL 7–6 in overtime. CBJ also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Zach Werenski scored at 1:26 of overtime, moving CBJ’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Elvis Merzlikins allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:51 | TBL | Brayden PointPP from Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:58 | TBL | Brandon Hagel from Nikita Kucherov, Anthony Cirelli | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P1 11:52 | TBL | Cam Atkinson from Victor Hedman, Mitchell Chaffee | 3–0 | 77% → 91% |
| P1 13:35 | CBJ | Sean Monahan from Dmitri Voronkov, Damon Severson | 3–1 | 9% → 22% |
| P2 0:28 | CBJ | Dmitri Voronkov from Sean Monahan, Zach Werenski | 3–2 | 20% → 34% |
| P2 1:55 | CBJ | Kent JohnsonPP from Zach Werenski, Kirill Marchenko | 3–3 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 2:11 | TBL | Mitchell Chaffee from Conor Geekie | 4–3 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 3:42 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Kirill Marchenko, Sean Monahan | 4–4 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 5:26 | CBJ | Egor Chinakhov from Cole Sillinger, Mathieu Olivier | 4–5 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 6:18 | TBL | Anthony Cirelli from Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov | 5–5 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 10:39 | CBJ | Kent JohnsonSH from Zach Werenski, Sean Monahan | 5–6 | 50% → 83% |
| P3 11:23 | TBL | Conor GeekiePP from Gage Goncalves, J.J. Moser | 6–6 | 17% → 48% |
| OT 1:26 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Cole Sillinger, Ivan Provorov | 6–7 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Cirelli C | 23:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.03 | +0.61 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Cam Atkinson R | 12:26 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.08 | +0.70 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Geekie C | 13:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.08 | +0.58 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Brandon Hagel L | 23:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.17 | +0.26 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 15:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.24 | +0.70 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brayden Point C | 15:42 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.42 | +0.76 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 22:47 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Eyssimont C | 9:01 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 23:28 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 21:07 | −0.24 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 9:25 | −0.26 | −0.13 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 8:50 | −0.27 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 14:06 | −0.27 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 20:44 | −0.33 | −0.26 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 16:22 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.39 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.02 | |
| Gage Goncalves C | 14:24 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.43 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 16:34 | −0.41 | −0.31 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 23:01 | 3 | −0.51 | −0.04 | −0.52 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson G | 60:33 | −2.60 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Werenski D | 27:28 | 2 | 3 | +1.62 | +0.28 | +1.33 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kent Johnson C | 14:58 | 2 | +1.47 | −0.08 | +1.56 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 16:44 | 1 | +1.20 | +0.21 | +0.80 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 16:05 | 1 | 3 | +0.82 | +0.31 | +0.53 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 15:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.25 | +0.43 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Damon Severson D | 23:30 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.44 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dante Fabbro D | 23:52 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 24:59 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.42 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Christiansen D | 11:30 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 16:38 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.37 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 12:43 | +0.01 | +0.27 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Danforth R | 15:18 | +0.01 | +0.26 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 9:20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 13:44 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 13:13 | −0.08 | +0.24 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 17:55 | 2 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 12:59 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 15:21 | 1 | −0.77 | +0.08 | −0.85 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 61:26 | −2.63 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.