SJS beat NJD 1–0. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nico Sturm scored at 16:21 of the first, moving SJS’s win probability from 47% to 65%. Mackenzie Blackwood saved 7.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:21 |  SJS | Nico Sturm from Carl Grundstrom, Henry Thrun | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Sturm C | 7:14 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.03 | +0.43 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Carl Grundstrom R | 6:03 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Givani Smith R | 5:27 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Henry Thrun D | 22:48 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jan Rutta D | 13:06 | −0.07 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 17:39 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Macklin Celebrini C | 18:40 | −0.16 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 17:20 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jack Thompson D | 15:10 | −0.27 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 16:04 | −0.27 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 17:43 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.30 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 22:54 | −0.29 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 19:37 | −0.33 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 18:39 | −0.36 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 21:32 | −0.37 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 20:40 | −0.47 | −0.14 | −0.29 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 18:46 | −0.57 | −0.52 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 16:41 | −0.61 | −0.46 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 59:57 | +7.90 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefan Noesen R | 16:26 | +0.30 | +0.48 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 19:25 | +0.24 | +0.31 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 21:31 | +0.15 | +0.59 | −0.27 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 23:27 | +0.09 | +0.32 | −0.56 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.40 | +0.02 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 24:05 | +0.03 | +0.59 | −0.47 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 16:50 | +0.03 | +0.13 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 12:03 | +0.00 | +0.15 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 20:20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 5:45 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 7:48 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 18:45 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Dowling C | 7:04 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 11:21 | −0.13 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.06 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 18:39 | −0.13 | +0.27 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 18:22 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 19:39 | −0.21 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 14:28 | −0.37 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 21:02 | −0.56 | +0.42 | −0.88 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 57:00 | +1.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.