WPG beat COL 1–0. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Gabriel Vilardi scored at 1:06 of the first, moving WPG’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Connor Hellebuyck saved 5.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:06 |  WPG | Gabriel Vilardi from Mark Scheifele | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikko Rantanen R | 23:55 | +0.32 | +0.36 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.02 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 24:29 | +0.09 | +0.31 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 17:13 | +0.09 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 17:59 | +0.07 | +0.17 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 25:16 | +0.05 | +0.20 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolai Kovalenko R | 12:27 | +0.04 | +0.12 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 21:04 | +0.03 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 18:37 | +0.02 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Ivan C | 10:35 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 14:33 | −0.01 | +0.16 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Prishchepov C | 6:49 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 13:29 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 16:12 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 14:39 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Wagner R | 6:30 | −0.15 | +0.12 | −0.24 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 25:11 | −0.19 | +0.29 | −0.21 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 20:42 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| T.J. Tynan C | 9:11 | −0.33 | +0.19 | −0.46 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 57:09 | +1.26 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Kupari C | 8:05 | +0.14 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 17:57 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.17 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cole Perfetti C | 13:20 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 21:24 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Alex Iafallo L | 9:16 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 9:47 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 18:18 | −0.14 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 12:51 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 12:52 | −0.16 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 21:54 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 22:57 | −0.22 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 13:31 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.16 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 20:29 | −0.25 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 15:29 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 17:15 | −0.30 | −0.29 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 18:45 | −0.33 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 19:37 | −0.45 | −0.13 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 25:18 | −0.46 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 59:45 | +5.35 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.