WPG beat TBL 7–4. WPG also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Dylan Samberg scored at 7:38 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 52% to 81%. Jonas Johansson allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:49 | TBL | Brandon Hagel unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 8:02 | TBL | Brayden PointPP from Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman | 2–0 | 64% → 76% |
| P1 12:23 |  WPG | Vladislav Namestnikov from Josh Morrissey | 2–1 | 22% → 36% |
| P2 5:49 | WPG | Logan Stanley from Nikolaj Ehlers | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 7:36 | WPG | Mark Scheifele from Gabriel Vilardi | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 8:39 | TBL | Mitchell Chaffee from Jake Guentzel, Nick Paul | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 4:03 | WPG | Alex IafalloPP from Nino Niederreiter, Cole Perfetti | 3–4 | 53% → 79% |
| P3 6:51 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov unassisted | 4–4 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 7:38 | WPG | Dylan Samberg from Kyle Connor, Dylan DeMelo | 4–5 | 52% → 81% |
| P3 17:15 | WPG | Nikolaj EhlersEN from Mark Scheifele, Vladislav Namestnikov | 4–6 | 91% → 99% |
| P3 19:23 | WPG | Cole PerfettiEN from Josh Morrissey | 4–7 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov R | 22:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.01 | +0.63 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brandon Hagel L | 23:38 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.02 | +0.63 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 3:47 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.02 | +0.61 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 16:17 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.08 | +0.60 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 21:55 | +0.32 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.04 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 18:41 | +0.14 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 21:48 | +0.12 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 16:28 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 9:20 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 11:29 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 21:45 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Paul L | 20:57 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 8:44 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 18:57 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 14:18 | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 25:07 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.04 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Eyssimont C | 11:22 | −0.36 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Geekie C | 9:54 | −0.50 | −0.00 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson G | 58:06 | −1.74 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Stanley D | 11:42 | 1 | +1.14 | +0.09 | +0.86 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Samberg D | 23:07 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.16 | +0.87 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 13:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.12 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Iafallo L | 12:29 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.07 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 20:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.03 | +0.51 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Colin Miller D | 12:58 | +0.30 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 14:40 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 20:43 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 22:33 | −0.11 | +0.15 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 12:33 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Kupari C | 12:31 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 14:06 | 1 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.10 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 14:59 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 23:38 | 2 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 19:43 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Perfetti C | 12:27 | 1 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.08 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mason Appleton C | 14:44 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 19:54 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.47 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:00 | −1.38 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.