TBL beat COL 5–2. TBL lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nikita Kucherov scored at 1:01 of the first, moving TBL’s win probability from 47% to 62%. Kaapo Kahkonen allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:01 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Brayden Point, Victor Hedman | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:36 | TBL | Jake Guentzel from Nikita Kucherov, Ryan McDonagh | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P1 5:32 | TBL | Conor Geekie from Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel | 3–0 | 76% → 89% |
| P1 14:56 | COL | Ivan IvanPP from Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon | 3–1 | 9% → 22% |
| P2 6:28 | TBL | Jake Guentzel from Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov | 4–1 | 83% → 94% |
| P3 10:57 | COL | Cale Makar from Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon | 4–2 | 1% → 4% |
| P3 18:40 | TBL | Anthony CirelliEN from Brandon Hagel | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel C | 18:34 | 2 | +1.30 | +0.09 | +1.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 16:36 | 1 | 2 | +0.85 | +0.04 | +0.79 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Conor Geekie C | 10:54 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.67 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 18:10 | 2 | +0.19 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 7:57 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 19:28 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Raddysh D | 18:45 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 11:24 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 24:52 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 9:28 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 17:34 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 12:06 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 15:26 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 25:22 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 19:15 | 1 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.01 |
| Brandon Hagel L | 21:25 | 2 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Atkinson R | 10:53 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 13:05 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.40 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | +1.94 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale Makar D | 25:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.06 | +0.38 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Nikolai Kovalenko R | 12:06 | +0.35 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.40 | −0.02 | ||
| Matthew Stienburg C | 4:06 | +0.11 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 24:58 | 2 | +0.11 | +0.11 | −0.09 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 19:58 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kylington D | 5:31 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 17:34 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 13:47 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| T.J. Tynan C | 8:36 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 15:44 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 14:50 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Ivan C | 18:11 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 23:36 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 21:39 | −0.28 | +0.05 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 15:00 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 24:37 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.10 | −0.28 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Chris Wagner R | 11:39 | −0.35 | −0.05 | −0.30 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 15:22 | −0.56 | +0.02 | −0.58 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 58:16 | −2.30 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.