NSH beat CBJ 4–3 in overtime. NSH also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jonathan Marchessault scored at 1:44 of overtime, moving NSH’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Daniil Tarasov allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:53 |  CBJ | Kirill Marchenko from Adam Fantilli, Jack Johnson | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 6:42 | CBJ | Zachary Aston-Reese from Mathieu Olivier | 2–0 | 67% → 83% |
| P2 10:40 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Ryan O'Reilly | 2–1 | 15% → 31% |
| P3 0:26 | NSH | Cole Smith from Michael McCarron, Brady Skjei | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 3:07 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Kevin Labanc, Sean Kuraly | 3–2 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 4:09 | NSH | Alexandre Carrier from Zachary L'Heureux | 3–3 | 25% → 52% |
| OT 1:44 | NSH | Jonathan Marchessault from Brady Skjei | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Werenski D | 27:46 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.31 | +0.39 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 11:10 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Harris D | 13:16 | +0.15 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 24:38 | +0.13 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 11:39 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 15:32 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.20 | +0.29 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 13:47 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.23 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 8:47 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 18:01 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.03 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 14:03 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 17:16 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 19:30 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.32 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 16:08 | −0.15 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 13:12 | −0.17 | +0.08 | −0.18 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 19:36 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 16:32 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.14 | −0.42 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 18:13 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 20:43 | −0.34 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 61:07 | −2.92 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Skjei D | 21:56 | 2 | +0.90 | +0.31 | −0.06 | +0.45 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Smith L | 14:51 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.01 | +0.39 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 20:26 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.06 | +0.44 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 13:34 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.29 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 19:03 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.30 | +0.14 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 13:50 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 20:45 | +0.14 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 18:28 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.02 | +0.21 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:49 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 15:22 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 16:49 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 6:56 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 10:20 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 17:46 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 13:06 | −0.19 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 14:12 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 12:50 | −0.38 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 27:10 | −0.47 | −0.16 | −0.25 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 61:43 | +0.50 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.