TBL beat NJD 8–5. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brandon Hagel scored at 9:27 of the second, moving TBL’s win probability from 47% to 68%. Jake Allen allowed 3.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:02 |  NJD | Jack Hughes from Jesper Bratt, Ondrej Palat | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 14:09 | TBL | Brayden PointPP from Anthony Cirelli, Nikita Kucherov | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 0:51 | NJD | Timo Meier from Jack Hughes | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 7:34 | TBL | Victor Hedman from J.J. Moser, Jake Guentzel | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 9:27 | TBL | Brandon Hagel from Anthony Cirelli, Nick Perbix | 3–2 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 13:01 | TBL | Brandon Hagel from Conor Geekie, Anthony Cirelli | 4–2 | 69% → 86% |
| P2 15:53 | TBL | Brandon Hagel from Emil Lilleberg, Anthony Cirelli | 5–2 | 87% → 97% |
| P2 17:28 | TBL | Victor Hedman from Brandon Hagel, J.J. Moser | 6–2 | 97% → 99% |
| P3 2:56 | NJD | Nathan Bastian from Curtis Lazar | 6–3 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 5:24 | NJD | Timo MeierPP from Tomas Tatar, Simon Nemec | 6–4 | 2% → 7% |
| P3 5:48 | TBL | Jake GuentzelPP from Nikita Kucherov | 7–4 | 93% → 99% |
| P3 9:19 | TBL | J.J. MoserSH from Nick Paul | 8–4 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 12:45 | NJD | Stefan NoesenPP from Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton | 8–5 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel L | 15:54 | 3 | 1 | +2.49 | +0.22 | +2.28 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Victor Hedman D | 22:02 | 2 | +1.77 | +0.15 | +1.59 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 20:52 | 1 | 2 | +0.99 | +0.05 | +0.94 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brayden Point C | 18:17 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.18 | +0.57 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Conor Geekie C | 12:48 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.02 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 18:00 | 2 | +0.15 | +0.18 | −0.15 | +0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 11:37 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 13:07 | 4 | +0.01 | +0.13 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 12:32 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 19:48 | −0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 17:21 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.12 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:22 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 19:43 | −0.14 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 16:18 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Emil Lilleberg D | 19:05 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 11:38 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 12:49 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 18:11 | 1 | 1 | −0.44 | +0.19 | −0.65 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson G | 59:57 | −0.86 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timo Meier R | 14:07 | 2 | +1.09 | −0.06 | +1.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Hughes C | 20:19 | 1 | 2 | +0.65 | −0.03 | +0.68 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nathan Bastian R | 12:06 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.03 | +0.65 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 13:40 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.40 | +0.00 | |
| Stefan Noesen R | 14:10 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.03 | +0.43 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 23:30 | +0.13 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 11:42 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Daniil Misyul D | 12:23 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 13:33 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 22:30 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 16:28 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 11:43 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 18:33 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 22:30 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 13:25 | −0.42 | −0.09 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 19:47 | −0.54 | −0.22 | −0.37 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 20:18 | 1 | −0.59 | −0.12 | −0.45 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 16:03 | −0.70 | −0.17 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 59:31 | −3.58 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.