OTT beat TBL 5–4. Expected goals were close to even (TBL 2.2, OTT 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jake Guentzel scored at 18:13 of the second, moving TBL’s win probability from 24% to 47%. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:50 | OTT | Drake BathersonPP from Claude Giroux, Jake Sanderson | 0–1 | 57% → 70% |
| P1 13:21 | OTT | Josh Norris from Claude Giroux, Drake Batherson | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P2 1:59 |  TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Ryan McDonagh, Erik Cernak | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 10:39 | TBL | Nick Paul from Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 13:20 | OTT | Drake Batherson unassisted | 2–3 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 18:13 | TBL | Jake Guentzel from Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov | 3–3 | 24% → 47% |
| P2 18:56 | OTT | Brady TkachukPP from Jake Sanderson, Tim Stützle | 3–4 | 53% → 77% |
| P3 6:17 | OTT | Noah GregorSH from Shane Pinto, Jake Sanderson | 3–5 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 8:11 | TBL | Mitchell Chaffee from Nick Perbix, Anthony Cirelli | 4–5 | 5% → 18% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel C | 20:02 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.04 | +0.87 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 9:34 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.02 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 19:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.04 | +0.45 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Nick Paul L | 16:26 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.06 | +0.46 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.03 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 19:03 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 19:49 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 21:52 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 10:52 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 11:09 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 20:56 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Geekie C | 13:57 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 21:10 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 10:05 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 16:56 | 2 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 11:36 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Raddysh D | 16:21 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 9:42 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 25:16 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.41 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 57:56 | −2.07 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Norris C | 21:14 | 1 | +1.25 | +0.13 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.40 | −0.01 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 21:16 | 2 | 1 | +1.17 | +0.16 | +1.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Noah Gregor L | 11:02 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.06 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 18:24 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.03 | +0.34 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 20:06 | +0.29 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 21:35 | 2 | +0.14 | +0.20 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 20:13 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 7:14 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 26:28 | 3 | −0.04 | +0.16 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Kleven D | 15:56 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 10:34 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 13:31 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 13:26 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 8:40 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 14:35 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.04 | |
| David Perron L | 12:22 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 17:48 | −0.34 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 19:36 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.20 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 60:00 | −1.13 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.