WSH beat TBL 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (TBL 2.9, WSH 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: John Carlson scored on the power play at 8:29 of the third, moving WSH’s win probability from 59% to 82%. Charlie Lindgren saved 1.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:56 | WSH | Sonny Milano from Max Pacioretty, Hendrix Lapierre | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 13:06 |  TBL | Anthony Duclair from Brayden Point, Darren Raddysh | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 14:00 | WSH | Sonny Milano unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 16:24 | TBL | Brandon Hagel from Steven Stamkos, Anthony Cirelli | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P3 8:29 | WSH | John CarlsonPP from Dylan Strome, Tom Wilson | 2–3 | 59% → 82% |
| P3 16:46 | WSH | Nic Dowd from Beck Malenstyn, Trevor van Riemsdyk | 2–4 | 91% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Duclair L | 13:19 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.13 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 17:51 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.10 | +0.57 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 15:19 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 18:09 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 11:15 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 11:02 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 9:49 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 19:29 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 19:28 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Paul L | 15:45 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 19:01 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 18:49 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 22:19 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 24:55 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 11:13 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 11:03 | −0.37 | −0.05 | −0.26 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 20:00 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.22 | −0.47 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 18:24 | 1 | −0.71 | +0.18 | −0.76 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 57:38 | −0.39 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Milano L | 10:08 | 2 | +1.68 | −0.04 | +1.53 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 12:57 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.03 | +0.86 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| John Carlson D | 27:25 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.21 | +0.65 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 18:52 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.39 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Iorio D | 11:17 | +0.13 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Alexeyev D | 21:42 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 7:00 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 21:28 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 14:09 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 19:16 | −0.08 | +0.14 | −0.26 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 12:52 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 15:25 | −0.21 | +0.22 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 10:33 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| T.J. Oshie R | 18:59 | −0.23 | +0.11 | −0.53 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 27:06 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 12:15 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.21 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McMichael L | 17:21 | −0.44 | −0.13 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 19:15 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.37 | −0.61 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 60:00 | +1.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.