OTT beat TBL 3–2 in a shootout. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Drake Batherson scored at 2:11 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 22% to 48%. Anton Forsberg saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:45 |  OTT | Brady Tkachuk from Jakob Chychrun | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:45 | TBL | Conor Sheary from Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 12:56 | TBL | Brayden Point from Nikita Kucherov, Conor Sheary | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P3 2:11 | OTT | Drake Batherson from Brady Tkachuk, Thomas Chabot | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk L | 21:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.04 | +0.39 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.71 |
| Drake Batherson R | 20:53 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.15 | +0.32 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jiri Smejkal L | 10:28 | +0.08 | +0.06 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 20:32 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.05 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 23:47 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Erik Brannstrom D | 16:54 | +0.02 | +0.21 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 23:59 | +0.02 | +0.12 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 10:01 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Bokondji Imama L | 6:21 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 19:35 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 19:12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 21:26 | −0.02 | +0.21 | −0.39 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 13:59 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 25:34 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Boris Katchouk L | 10:21 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 16:10 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 6:55 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 19:12 | −0.37 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 64:55 | +1.60 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Raddysh D | 26:01 | +0.50 | +0.31 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 22:43 | 2 | +0.49 | +0.13 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 21:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.25 | +0.38 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.27 |
| Conor Sheary L | 14:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.00 | +0.32 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Luke Glendening C | 8:43 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 6:14 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 8:00 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 18:20 | −0.08 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 23:37 | −0.12 | −0.17 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 11:02 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 11:44 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 23:01 | −0.23 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 17:52 | −0.31 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 15:01 | −0.37 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 17:30 | −0.56 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 17:40 | −0.64 | −0.32 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.09 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 20:20 | −0.76 | −0.07 | −0.45 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.31 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 23:24 | −0.95 | −0.05 | −0.44 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Tomkins G | 64:34 | +0.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.