PIT beat TBL 5–4. Expected goals were close to even (TBL 3.0, PIT 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Michael Bunting scored at 14:32 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 51% to 88%. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:20 |  PIT | Sidney Crosby from Bryan Rust, Erik Karlsson | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 6:06 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Erik Karlsson, Michael Bunting | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 12:15 |  TBL | Steven StamkosPP from Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov | 1–2 | 11% → 26% |
| P2 14:39 | PIT | Kris Letang unassisted | 1–3 | 75% → 90% |
| P2 16:57 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Michael Bunting | 1–4 | 91% → 98% |
| P3 0:25 | TBL | Nick Paul from Michael Eyssimont, Mitchell Chaffee | 2–4 | 2% → 8% |
| P3 7:23 | TBL | Anthony Duclair from Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman | 3–4 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 10:45 | TBL | Steven StamkosPP from Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov | 4–4 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 14:32 | PIT | Michael Bunting from Evgeni Malkin, Erik Karlsson | 4–5 | 51% → 88% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos C | 17:00 | 2 | +1.08 | −0.02 | +1.05 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nick Paul L | 21:54 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.06 | +0.65 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 13:47 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.12 | +0.66 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 13:01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 23:48 | 3 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.14 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 15:30 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 18:36 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 15:08 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 22:49 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 13:58 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 14:16 | −0.21 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 14:36 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 12:23 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Haydn Fleury D | 13:17 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 17:45 | −0.29 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 15:15 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.14 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 24:02 | 3 | −0.37 | −0.11 | −0.32 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 11:18 | −0.40 | +0.03 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 57:37 | −2.22 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Malkin C | 18:09 | 2 | 1 | +1.19 | +0.12 | +1.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Michael Bunting L | 15:12 | 1 | 2 | +0.88 | +0.14 | +0.55 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Kris Letang D | 25:14 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.08 | +0.88 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 18:33 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.02 | +0.69 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| John St. Ivany D | 14:36 | +0.25 | +0.29 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 13:55 | +0.22 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 22:23 | 3 | +0.19 | +0.25 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lars Eller C | 16:32 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 16:33 | +0.10 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 21:48 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.16 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 14:37 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 10:15 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 13:01 | +0.00 | +0.15 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 7:06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 17:09 | −0.31 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 6:54 | −0.38 | +0.03 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 18:36 | −0.47 | −0.11 | −0.33 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 23:22 | −0.56 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.56 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 60:00 | −0.93 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.