LAK beat TBL 4–3 in overtime. LAK lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Vladislav Gavrikov scored at 0:25 of overtime, moving LAK’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:03 |  LAK | Adrian Kempe from Anze Kopitar, Quinton Byfield | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 19:54 |  TBL | Brayden PointPP unassisted | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 2:18 | LAK | Trevor Moore from Pierre-Luc Dubois | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P3 1:12 | LAK | Mikey Anderson unassisted | 1–3 | 78% → 92% |
| P3 15:25 | TBL | Steven StamkosPP from Brayden Point, Anthony Duclair | 2–3 | 1% → 11% |
| P3 19:14 | TBL | Steven StamkosPP from Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman | 3–3 | 4% → 49% |
| OT 0:25 | LAK | Vladislav Gavrikov from Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos C | 17:30 | 2 | +1.48 | −0.12 | +1.38 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Brayden Point C | 20:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.21 | +0.41 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Victor Hedman D | 24:48 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.25 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 16:37 | +0.14 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 19:44 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.23 | −0.22 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Motte C | 12:05 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 12:36 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 16:23 | −0.02 | +0.22 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 9:10 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 11:43 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 16:25 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 16:34 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.15 | −0.29 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 18:39 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 16:00 | −0.20 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 19:41 | −0.25 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 16:33 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 11:50 | −0.32 | −0.10 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 20:17 | −0.35 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 58:23 | −1.24 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 21:10 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.17 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikey Anderson D | 20:11 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.04 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Moore L | 18:13 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.07 | +0.59 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 21:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.21 | +0.33 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 17:18 | +0.47 | +0.16 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 20:37 | +0.14 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 20:22 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 12:26 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Moverare D | 3:31 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Englund D | 9:17 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 21:58 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.21 | −0.13 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Quinton Byfield R | 18:48 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Spence D | 11:38 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 27:49 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Laferriere R | 12:10 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 7:54 | −0.42 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 17:42 | −0.44 | −0.07 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 15:30 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.03 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 59:39 | −0.84 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.